Monday, May 2, 2011

NFL Draft Recap - which QB will become a star?

Every year, too much emphasis is placed on which quarterback will be selected first and which team will select said QB. Football is a 22-man game, and it is my belief that no one person can take a team from 0-16 to the Super Bowl without loads of help from his co-workers.

That being said, we consume ourselves in analyzing the "top-rated" quarterbacks and reviewing "projections" to determine (within our own minds) if it would be wise for our favorite team to draft a quarterback. More often than not, we find ourselves thinking how cool it would be if the top-rated QB were to be selected by our favorite team.

This year, Cam Newton enhanced this thought process by leaps and bounds. His physical size and ability is insane, but his personality and mental capabilities are suspect. I cannot recall a prospect with so much potential in both directions - potential to be a perennial All-Pro, and the potential to be the next JaMarcus Russell.

So I started to think...is it really a good idea to draft a quarterback in the first round? Is there really such a thing as a "can't miss" prospect at the quarterback position? Wouldn't it be better to minimize risk by waiting until a later round to select a signal caller?

I did some research. Comparing the first round QB selections since 2005 with the fourth round QB selections since 2005, the numbers are obvious (the fourth round is the middle round of the draft, so I figured it would be a good measuring stick):

2005 first round selections: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell
2006 first round selections: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler
2007 first round selections: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn
2008 first round selections: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
2009 first round selections: Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman
2010 first round selections: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow

Compare the names above to these...

2005 fourth round selections: Kyle Orton, Stefan LeFors
2006 fourth round selections: Brad Smith
2007 fourth round selections: Isaiah Stanback
2008 fourth round selections: none
2009 fourth round selections: Stephen McGee
2010 fourth round selections: Mike Kafka

When looking at these names side by side, its easy to see that the fourth rounders are pale in comparison to the first rounders. Sure, I get what you're thinking...these guys are fourth round draft picks - they aren't supposed to be THAT good. And I agree, these guys aren't that good, and they support the theory that maybe you really do have to draft a QB early to get results.

The bigger conclusion I can draw from this is that just about every year, at least one really good quarterback is drafted in the first round. In 2005, it was Aaron Rodgers. In 2006, it was Jay Cutler. In 2007...well, ok...let's just forget about 2007. In 2008, it was both Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. In 2009, it was a tie between Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman. In 2010, it was Sam Bradford.

What intrigues us now is the debate over Cam Newton, and whether he will be the best of the 2011 first round selections. Will he live up to the hype? Or will Jake Locker be the best of 2011? Will Blaine Gabbert emerge the quickest? Will Christian Ponder step in and be a success story with the Vikings?

If history is any indication, one of the above questions is guaranteed to be answered with a resounding "yes."

Saturday, April 16, 2011

Bonds' trial concludes; NHL Playoffs begin

The Barry Bonds courtroom drama is over - for now.

At this point all of you know what happened this past week. And undoubtedly many of you were left scratching your heads once you heard the final verdict. But let's start from the beginning...

Think about the most basic, essential part of this trial for a moment - the government was trying to prove that Barry Bonds KNEW something. They were trying to prove in a court of law that Bonds knowingly took steroids and lied about it to a grand jury. How in the world do you go about proving that someone knew something? How do you begin to provide evidence when you can't physically open up Bonds' skull and say "yep, right here, this portion of his brain is physically damaged because he lied under oath"? Without hard evidence, wasn't this a game of he said/she said?

Well, the government proved that it certainly was not a game, and a conviction was not a long shot. I give the prosecutors a ton of credit for formulating an argument and painting a detailed pictured that elicited at least one guilty verdict, let alone four. Analysts and commentators have been debating whether or not the prosecution won or lost this trial, and I cannot understand those who say they lost.

Sure, Bonds was only convicted on one out of four charges. But with the deck stacked against them the government worked their way into one guilty verdict, and nearly got two - one juror refused to agree to a guilty verdict for the 'unknowingly receiving injections' allegation.

The head-scratching part of all of this is the future and the question 'where do we go from here'? The other three charges are still in limbo, and the government is deciding whether or not to re-try Bonds on those same charges. Perhaps this is why I was left so unsatisfied once I heard the outcome - I might have to go through this again. I might have to see reporters outside of a courtroom taking pictures of the home-run king as he walks through a metal detector. I might have to watch a legal analyst give the daily report on courtroom proceedings and testimony. I might have to have my own personal debate on how large the circumference of a human head can possibly be.

But until then, only two words can describe my feelings...annoyed and unsettled. The true joy for me will come when Barry Bonds is no longer in the news, and this drawn out, excruciatingly time consuming legal process finally comes to an end.


The NHL Playoffs have begun and today I realized something - those damn Red Wings have a really, really good shot to make it back to the Stanley Cup Finals. In the last five seconds you have undoubtedly realized I'm not a Detroit fan, but I gotta acknowledge how good they looked today against the Coyotes (I was fortunate enough to get game 2 of their series on TV at my apartment).

I could break down teams and do some predictions, but I think the bigger underlying theme to the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the intensity, stress, and physical toll that players will endure in the coming weeks. We as fans appreciate that more than anything. Take Johan Franzen for example - in today's game, he gets absolutely crushed face-first into the boards by a Phoenix defender. Franzen's face was mangled, bloody, and gross. But he returned to the game in the second period and played the remainder of the game with 27 stitches and a giant band-aid on his face. I'm not a Detroit fan, and I really hope they somehow collapse against the Coyotes, but I gotta give credit to players like Franzen who are absolute warriors.

But just for kicks....San Jose over Buffalo in 6 games...