NFL Draft Recap - which QB will become a star?

Every year, too much emphasis is placed on which quarterback will be selected first and which team will select said QB. Football is a 22-man game, and it is my belief that no one person can take a team from 0-16 to the Super Bowl without loads of help from his co-workers.

That being said, we consume ourselves in analyzing the "top-rated" quarterbacks and reviewing "projections" to determine (within our own minds) if it would be wise for our favorite team to draft a quarterback. More often than not, we find ourselves thinking how cool it would be if the top-rated QB were to be selected by our favorite team.

This year, Cam Newton enhanced this thought process by leaps and bounds. His physical size and ability is insane, but his personality and mental capabilities are suspect. I cannot recall a prospect with so much potential in both directions - potential to be a perennial All-Pro, and the potential to be the next JaMarcus Russell.

So I started to think...is it really a good idea to draft a quarterback in the first round? Is there really such a thing as a "can't miss" prospect at the quarterback position? Wouldn't it be better to minimize risk by waiting until a later round to select a signal caller?

I did some research. Comparing the first round QB selections since 2005 with the fourth round QB selections since 2005, the numbers are obvious (the fourth round is the middle round of the draft, so I figured it would be a good measuring stick):

2005 first round selections: Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers Jason Campbell

2006 first round selections: Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler

2007 first round selections: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn

2008 first round selections: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco

2009 first round selections: Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman

2010 first round selections: Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow

Compare the names above to these...

2005 fourth round selections: Kyle Orton, Stefan LeFors

2006 fourth round selections: Brad Smith

2007 fourth round selections: Isaiah Stanback

2008 fourth round selections: none

2009 fourth round selections: Stephen McGee

2010 fourth round selections: Mike Kafka

When looking at these names side by side, its easy to see that the fourth rounders are pale in comparison to the first rounders. Sure, I get what you're thinking...these guys are fourth round draft picks - they aren't supposed to be THAT good. And I agree, these guys aren't that good, and they support the theory that maybe you really do have to draft a QB early to get results.

The bigger conclusion I can draw from this is that just about every year, at least one really good quarterback is drafted in the first round. In 2005, it was Aaron Rodgers. In 2006, it was Jay Cutler. In 2007...well, ok...let's just forget about 2007. In 2008, it was both Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco. In 2009, it was a tie between Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman. In 2010, it was Sam Bradford.

What intrigues us now is the debate over Cam Newton, and whether he will be the best of the 2011 first round selections. Will he live up to the hype? Or will Jake Locker be the best of 2011? Will Blaine Gabbert emerge the quickest? Will Christian Ponder step in and be a success story with the Vikings?

If history is any indication, one of the above questions is guaranteed to be answered with a resounding "yes."