Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Rise of the Bearcats, and a solid Week 9 lineup

By now, everyone knows that the University of Cincinnati Bearcats football team is legit. Brian Kelly's bunch is ranked #5 in the current BCS standings, and have put together three straight wins since losing starting quarterback and Heisman hopeful Tony Pike to injury.

Historically, losing your starting quarterback results in a loss (see RICKY STANZI) or a significant dip in the performance of your offense. But apparently someone forgot to tell that to Cincinnati. The Bearcats have yet to lose, and if anything, their offense is performing BETTER now than it was three weeks ago.

Why? Zach Collaros.

Collaros came into the season as the Bearcats backup QB, but has emerged as a legitimate threat both running and passing in the absence of Tony Pike. The redshirt sophomore took over for Pike on October 15th at South Florida, and immediately turned heads with his 75-yard touchdown run in third quarter. People began to think "OK, this kid can really run the ball, Cincinnati might be alright without Pike."

A week later against Louisville, Collaros not only ran for 58 yards, but he also threw for 253 and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Oh yeah, and he completed 15 out of 17 passes. People began to say "ehhhh Louisville is having an off year, everyone is shredding their secondary."

The next week, against lowly Syracuse, Collaros completed 22 of 28 passes for 295 yards and four touchdowns. People said "ehhhh Syracuse stinks, he's supposed to do that against them."

Last week, facing a good Connecticut team on national television, Collaros ran for 79 yards and two touchdowns. He also completed 27 of 39 passes for 480 yards, and had over 300 yards passing in the first half. People are now saying "WOW, this kid can play...will Tony Pike get his job back?"

That is the big question facing Bearcats head coach Brian Kelly. Tony Pike is a senior and hot NFL prospect. But Collaros is just flat out HOT right now, with an passing efficiency rating of 210 in his three starts. Pike is expected to be healthy enough to play this week, and Coach Kelly has a decision to make.

Kelly has already said that Collaros will start this week against West Virginia, but also that he hopes to get Tony Pike some snaps during the game. Kelly has also said that when Pike is fully recovered, the starting job will once again be his.

All I know is that I would hate to have to make this decision. If the Bearcats lose one of their final three games, Brian Kelly is gonna be under an intense amount of heat. If he leaves Collaros in and they lose, everyone will say "why didn't you put Pike back in?" But if he puts Tony Pike in and the Bearcats lose, everyone will say "why did you take Collaros out?"

Ultimately, I think I would leave Collaros in until he screws up. Watching the game against UCONN on Saturday night, I had this sense of confidence anytime Collaros dropped back to pass. It was as if I KNEW he was going to complete the pass, or at least make something positive happen. Its that sense of confidence that comes around when Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, or Tom Brady drop back to pass - you know something good is going to happen (I had this same confidence watching Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli last weekend, even though his defense let him down).

Bottom line: If Cincinnati keeps winning, regardless of his decision, Brian Kelly has nothing to worry about.

- Week 9 of the NFL season has some juicy matchups that I gotta talk about. First, the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Pittsburgh for a battle for first place in the AFC North. Anyone who knows me personally knows that I'm a huge Steelers fan, so it's really no secret who I'll be rooting for. But this game will be entertaining for everyone to watch, mainly because it has all the makings of a bloodbath.

The Steelers hate the Bengals, and the Bengals hate the Steelers. Cedric Benson has been running wild so far this season, but the Steelers have one of (if not THE) best run defenses in the league. Everyone on the Bengals defense will be looking to decapitate Hines Ward for what he did to Keith Rivers last season. The Bengals beat the Steelers in Cincinnati earlier this year. Oh yeah, and both teams are 6 - 2 sitting tied for first place in the AFC North.

How about that for headlines leading up to a game?

The other big matchup this week is between the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts. Once again, this will be another installment of "who would you rather have as your QB - Peyton or Tom?" There really is no right answer to the question. However, this game WILL answer another prominent question - just how good are the Colts?

Indianapolis is sitting atop the AFC with a perfect 8 - 0 record. Peyton Manning is the frontrunner for MVP of the league, going toe-to-toe with Drew Brees. The Colts are also coming off a dramatic last second win over their division rival Houston Texans.

But questions still remain. Can Indy's defense survive without Bob Sanders? Can the Colts effectively run the ball? Peyton had nearly 40 passing attempts in the first half of last week's game, which is a recipe for disaster against any legit defense.

Bottom line: I'm watching to see if Peyton Manning can effectively lead his team to victory over a proven team with a winning pedigree, and if the Colts defense can slow down Tom Brady. My personal belief is that whichever team can run the ball more effectively will win the game (running the ball = less pressure on the quarterback = more play-action pass opportunities = more big plays in the passing game = more points on the board)

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